SINGAPORE'S SOCIETAL REPLACEMENT AND A DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB
Chart #1 (note the unequal time series)
Chart #1 above shows key metrics on Singapore citizens only, i.e., excluding PRs and resident foreign nationals such as work permit holders.
Like all countries, Singapore experienced a baby-boom after WWII. 1957 saw record Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of about 6.4%. Immediately after independence in 1965 Singapore started seriously on family planning following a White Paper on population management. In 1965 the Family Planning Board was created. By 1970 the "stop-at-two" campaigns kicked in. The chart shows Total Fertility Rate (pink line) immediately began to fall sharply after independence. TFR which fell from pre-independence high of 6 to 1.04 in 2022 and projected to remain at about this level to 2065.
The yellow line for children dropped sharply in positive correlation to the TFR. The % of children has been on a sharp decline since independence (40%) all through to 2022 when it stabilised shortly for 2022-2024 (16%) and projected to fall further to under 10% by 2065. The drop in birth rates is attributable to social-economic factors of rising cost of raising families and the world trend of affluence changing life trends toward individualism.
For all who believes in amorous nature of humans, no, the pandemic lockdowns did no cause a surge in babies born. There was still very slight declines in 2019-2022. This does not indicate Singaporeans are lousy lovers. The story of a baby boom during the famous massive New York City blackout in 1965 was just an urban legend. Studies showed no uptick in births 9 months after the blackout. So we are same-same.
Life expectancy increased remarkably from about 67 in 1965 to about 83 by 2022 due to improved health services on the back of a thriving economy. This is expected to increase to 86 by 2065.
The elderly was about 8% at independence. Improved life expectancy increased the elderly to about 25% of the population. This is projected to increase to 40% by 2065.
Working adults was 55% of total Singaporeans after independence and climbed to taper at 65%-67% between 1989-2008. That was the point where Singapore was at it's economic "sweet spot" which coincided with its peak economic success as one of the 4 "Asian Tigers". Reason - we had a higher working age population to a lower un-employed population (children and aged). The high working age population provided the needed labour to a growing economy. The lower un-employed population means less drain on state weldfare resources, as well as more disposable income for the working adults since they have less dependents and this spurred domestic consumption..
With a declining birth rate, the composition of working adults is then projected to fall precariously to 50% by 2065. While a declining birth rate projects a drop of children population to about 10% by 2065, improved welfare raises the projected aged population to about 40%.
Key takeaway from this chart:
We are therfore looking at a growing scenario of some hard truths:
- an unavoidable dependency on foreign labour, the harder the push for higher GDP numbers, the more insatiable the thirst for guest workers.
- a contiuing upward climb of an aged population means increasing state spending on infra, services and subsidies on healthcare. With a government reluctant to trade-off against other fiscal projects, the increased healthcare cost will be socialised through an ever higher GST.
- increased dependency due to rising aged population strains disposable income on average earners.
- a TFR of 1.04 in 2022 means the number of Singaporeans is halved about every 30 years, which means extinction in about 75-100 years time.
- unless the government mandates the taking of Tongkat Ali to perpetuate our gene pool, adding new citizens is an inevitable fixation.
Chart #2 (note the unequal time series)
When we talk data about the number of people in Singapore, be certain what is being referred. Is it the black line (all Singapore citizens and those temporarily residing here), the green line (Singaporeans + PRs) and the blue line (Singaporean citizens)?
The black line and the blue line in the chart shows that almost 40% of people that walk the streets of Singapore are non-citizens. That means every 2 out of 3 persons you bump into are not citizens. Whilst foreign workers are inevitable and is to be found in almost every city in the world, the 2:3 ratio means Singaporeans bear a huge amount of infrastructure cost.
The establishment talks of a projected 10m population but vague on what they mean. I am inclined to think they mean the black line. That will mean increasing the Foreigner make-up and levelling the Singaporean-Foreigner ratio from 2:3 to what ---- 1:1?.
Prior to 1990s, new citizen naturalisation was low. This picked up after 1990 and from the years 1990-2010 annual new citizens averaged 10,000 to 20,000. A 2013 White Paper on population guidance calibrated target of 15,000 to 25,000. For the years 2012 to 2024 new citizens added averaged 22,000 annually. These include children of Singaporeans born overseas, which make up about 5% of the annual average of 22,000.
I had Grok plot the yellow line which is the population of original Singaporeans without new citizens. In 2024 there was about 3.6m of us, true blue Singaporeans since Independence. A birthrate of about 2.1 is thought to be an optimum for a society to just about replace themselves. With birth rate of 1.04 true blue Singaporeans would have gone extinct in less than 75 years, or in another 2 generations!
So what is the state secret of the new citizen numbers. This is what I managed to dig up:
1965-1980 : 20,000 estimated. Data not readily available.
1980-1989 : 73,328. Annual average 7,332 (with 3 years 1987,88,89 estimated at 4,000 each)
1990-2005 : 192,000 (Estimats based on average 12,000 per year). Data for this period is not readility available in tables but in charts which are not easily accessible by AI.
2006-2010 : 94,499. Average 18,899
2006-2020 : 208,732. Average 20,873
2021-2025: 113,857. Average 22,721.
I estimate the total new citizens naturalised to date is 702,441. About 8% of these are citizens by descent (children of Singaporeans born overseas). Number of new citizens is represented by the distance between blue and yellow lines. Grok has smoothened the yellow line to take care of the years with missing data. My estimate of 702,441 fairly corresponds to the chart.
The government is reticent of information regarding new citizens in respect of race, religion, country of origin, number of chldren, etc. By observation we know the birth rate is markedly different between Malays and other races. There is no data but it is discernable Malays tend to have a higher birth rate. It is never spoken in public, but speculation is rife the naturalisation policy is social engineering to strife for maintaining status quo in racial distribution. The government has mentioned a key criteria in naturalisation is applicants' ability to contribute to Singapore, amongst other things. If birth rate is a critical factor, I would have thought a key factor should include the number of children applicants have. I also know personally of some births by descent are denied citizenship on the suspected rationale the Singapore parents cannot contribute to the economy. This is unconstitutional and counter-intuitive in a declining birth rate crisis.
The calibrated new citizen naturalisation has stabilised the population of Singapore citizens, represented by the flattened blue line since 2006. By my estimation, by the next 2 generations, the fabric of Singapore society would have changed 100%. It would be a society with the majority having no links or shared memory of the founding of the country and the values of our forefathers. Singapore's multiculturalism success has been built on the pillars of (a) the Malay community's effort to join mainstream ethos of getting kids educated, work hard and strive for better living standards, (b) the Chinese sticking to Lee Kuan Yew's doctrine that a majority race must protect and look after the minorities, and (c) all races having learnt to live harmoniously respecting each other's culture and religion. When the fabric of our society changes with new citizens from various countries, will the unique multicultural harmony of Singapore be impacted? That's the tail end risk of our population replacement policy for future generations to grapple with.
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